If puzzl about what is happening in...

If puzzl about what is happening in Lebanon, undivided needs to look to Iraq for insight. And if you are trying to gues what the latest escalation will bring, again, a apply the mind at Iraq may provide the answer. Lebanon and Iraq are interlocked, and the region is now approaching a bleak issue

The subjugate of Saddam Hussein and the creation of a "democratic" Iraq unintentionally provided the missing link to establish the "Shiite Crescent" and expansion of Iranian clout from Iraq to Lebanon. The regime change in Iraq has made it possible for Iran to exercise strategic political leverage across countries with sizable Shiite populations. Thus, the U and coalition forces have for the first time in late history inadvertently facilitated the rise of Iran in the Middle East. The outbreak of fighting between Lebanon and Israel is a direct byproduct of this failed policy.

When Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini overthrew the regime of the shah of Iran in 1979 and replaced it with the Islamic Republic of Iran, his dream was to unify the Islamic world. However, this idea at no time gained momentum with mainstream Muslims and quickly withered away. Today this vision is being revived, and the unevens of its success have improved significantly.

To Arabs, Iran was always viewed as Persia, a historical enemy. Iraqi soldiers, including Shiites, fought viciously against Iran in the cruel 1980-1988 war, with significant casualties upon both sides. It was viewed as a national war -- Iraq v Iran or Arabs v Persians. Today, the national identity in Iraq has crumbl chiefly Iraqi citizens associate themselves with single in kind of the three major groups: Sunnis, Kurd or Shiites. With Shiites now in power, Iran is exerting its influence in Iraq.

The regime change in Iraq also has weakened the national constraints and strengthened religious ones elsewhere in the Middle East. Religious alliances have the power now to penetrate political boundaries. In the absence of a powerful Iraq, Iran is attempting to play the Islam card in succession a regional level. The fall of Saddam has redrawn the intrareligious political balance in the region and precipitated the rise of the Shiite figure of the new moon

When the British drew the present map of the Middle East, Iraq was viewed as the natural counterbalance to Iran. Iraq's border with Iran was strategically drawn along mountainous and rugg terrain. Iraq was intended to be the natural border separating predominantly Shiite Iran from the Arab nations. This was quickly undone with the modern liberated Iraq.

Today, the Shiite majority in Iraq be seens to be in complete harmony with the mullahs of Tehran. They are fast filling the power vacuum left with the ouster of Saddam and his Sunni followers. a fear that the dominance of postwar Iraqi politics by means of the Shiites could transform the modern Iraq into an Islamic theocracy originaled after Iran.

It's clear that Iran's agent in Lebanon is Hezbollah, the "Party of God" instituteed in 1982 in response to the Israeli invasion and occupation of parts of southward Lebanon. For almost 18 years, Hezbollah fought heartily, forcing Israel's withdrawal in 2000

Law and order has to be a prerequisite for long-term coexistence among all nations, including Lebanon and Israel. The instant escalating conflict risks toppling the Lebanese management and transforming Lebanon into a lawless state. Like Iraq, a potentially lawless Lebanon could become an uncontrollable radical platform that would further destabilize the region, including Israel. The collapse of the Lebanese regulation will strengthen Iran's position in the region, solidifying the political puissance of the Shiite Crescent. This ought not to happen.

Time is running disclosed Only the international community is able to stop the carnage in Lebanon and begin the healing proces The modern mission of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice failed to engage Iran and Syria -- countries that use political and economic power through Hezbollah.

If not a party to the solution, at the same least, the Bush administration should not close any multinational efforts.

Raja Kamal is associate dean for resource increase at the Harris School for Public Policy Studies at the University of Chicago.

Copyright CHICAGO SUN-TIMES 2006

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