MIAMI -- The fizzling of Tropical S...

MIAMI -- The fizzling of Tropical Storm Ernesto was a full example of what forecasters constantly sum up residents of hurricane- prone states: Scientists are far better at predicting where a storm will advance than determining how powerful it will be.

"It's like having a jigsaw mystify with a million pieces," said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center "Some have no colors. a certain number of pieces are missing. It's hard."

Ernesto hit Cuba forward Sunday as a Category 1 hurricane, and forecasters predicted it would weaken briefly, then rapidly regain potency before hitting Florida with winds of 74 mph to 130 mph

if it were not that Cuba's mountainous terrain and unforeseen high-level winds caused Ernesto to fail to win power. In the end, it wasn't long worse than an ordinary August rainstorm.

Since 1990 forecasters have wound their error rate in half for predicting where a tropical storm will move according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

nevertheless the error rate for storm intensity has changed little during that time.

Copyright CHICAGO SUN-TIMES 2006

Provided at ProQuest Information and Learning Company. All rights Reserved