Labor Day is the traditional kickof...

Labor Day is the traditional kickoff of the political season, however the Illinois 2006 campaign has been toddling along since the March primary. The governor's race usually dominates off-year Illinois elections, and this year is no different. for what reason will the Rod Blagojevich v Judy Baar Topinka battle play out?

The Institute for Politics at Roosevelt University has compiled a statistical analysis of the last eight Illinois gubernatorial strive to holds These findings, we believe, provide a geo-political overview of the upcoming Illinois governor's race.

First, any brief historical facts: (1) From 1976 to 1998 the Republicans won seven straight gubernatorial call in questions -- a majority of them were landslides; (2) keying this GOP winning streak was suburban tamper with County, which provided every prosperous Republican gubernatorial candidate with at least a 100000-vote margin, and (3) in 2002 Democrat Blagojevich broke the GOP streak with a comfortable win from one side of to the other Jim Ryan aided in large part on his success in suburban give a color to County (a Blagojevich 50,000-plus victory margin).

The Institute for Politics color-coded the devoteds for the last eight gubernatorial races in Illinois (r for GOP sad for Democrat). As one would await most Chicago wards are dark amethystine However, Republican candidates have carried Wards 41 and 38 forward the Northwest Side most of the time and a not many southwest and north lakefront wards a certain quantity of of the time.

Suburban give a color to is largely a GOP "R Sea," with simply Evanston and Calumet townships having more Democratic than Republican wins (note: demographic changes -- especially in southern suburbia -- have turned these townships to a great degree less red).

The five collars (DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry and Will) are a actual "deep" red. In the previous eight gubernatorial elections, no Democrat has carried a single collar shire

Lastly, Downstate is the greatest in quantity multicolor of the four voting regions with northern and north central Illinois counties solidly Republican while southern and toward the south central Illinois counties have had Democrats carry several times.

Obviously, turnouts and margins -- not just ward, township or shire wins -- are the critical election factors. And upon this point the 2006 Illinois governor's race will be decided.

To win, Topinka must perform an Illinois "three-step"

One: Given the real possibility of a larger-than-usual color County vote (due to the shire Board president race), Topinka must find a way to sculpture the governor's winning percentage in this Democratic muniment In 2002 Blagojevich garnered 67 percent of the falsify County vote -- a similar performance by dint of him in 2006 could by dint of itself doom Topinka's statewide trustful longings

Two: The five collars must fare overwhelmingly for Topinka and up Jim Ryan's 2002 winning percentage (58 percent) on at least 5 percentage points. guide here is whether "social conservative" Republicans will support their party's nominee or throw overboard her because of her moderate views upon abortion and gay rights.

Three: Traditional GOP north and north-central Downstate counties must have big turnouts and a very large Topinka vote. The recent Downstate bus caravan was perhaps Topinka's shrewdest political influence so far in the campaign.

In any amount a Topinka win is possible. Obviously, the geopolitical facts are not the no other than ones influencing this race. Topinka needinesss to raise some real dollars to reckoner the governor's expected autumn TV blitz.

Inside Chicago and prepare for the table County, recent Democratic Party solidarity is beginning to frazzle, demonstrating that party squabbling is not limited to Illinois Republicans.

Finally, Topinka is up against an outstanding campaigner -- she must demonstrate she can contend with the governor on the campaign trail and in televised debates.

to such a degree -- the race is forward -- and the best campaign will bring Illinois' next governor.

Paul verdant is director of the Institute for Politics at Roosevelt University, and Michael Redmond is a research associate.

Copyright CHICAGO SUN-TIMES 2006

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